Regime Change Hamas

I disagree with the assessment that regime change of Hamas would be a positive step to take. On the contrary, if such a plan were executed, it would be doing Hamas the biggest favor it could wish for at the moment. Here is why.

The election of Hamas leaves it with either one of two options; 1) Assume responsibility on behalf of the Palestinian people, or 2) Decline its elected responsibility. It can't take the second option, because that would make it look awfully childish and cause it to lose its credibility among the Palestinian electorate. So that leaves it with no choice but the first option, and it is not liking this particular corner very much.

The election of hard-line Hamas is a positive thing for the following reason: Now that you are elected leader of the Palestinian people, show us what you can do. Assuming responsibility on behalf of the Palestinian people in reality means being held responsible for its actions by the international community and its own people. No longer can it execute suicide bombings against Israel and get away with it; it will be held accountable as the government of Palestine, by Israel, the international community of nations and the clear majority of Palestinians who got them elected. So in reality, now that Hamas is in the forefront of Palestinian politics, one way or another it has no choice but to soften its positions towards Israel and deal with it (and de facto recognize it, whether it will choose to admit to this publicly or not), just as Fatah previously did.

This proposed move towards regime change on the other hand will give Hamas the perfect pretext for it to step down from its currently difficult position. Once again, it will escape being held responsible by anyone as it acts freely as the main power broker behind Palestinian politics, while it hides comfortably behind the government of Fatah. Contrast this to the first option where Hamas would have been cornered politically and left no choice but to reform its hard-line positions which have been a thorn in the back of the Middle East peace process for so long. Furthermore, in the event of a regime change it will only use this to gain more political ground with its hard-line supporters by pointing that the US and its allies evidently have no real desire for representative democracy.

The only necessary ingredient for this formula to succeed is for Egypt to maintain a far enough distance from the machinations of Palestinian politics in this coming period, so as not to give anyone a chance to blame Egyptian political pressure for the decisions made by the Palestinian parties. It must be made clear to all, most importantly to the Palestinian people themselves, that the decisions they have made were reached on their own. And it must be crystal clear that they - not their traditional scapegoat of Egypt - are responsible for the consequences of the decisions they make.

On this track, I think the Arab-Israeli conflict will soundly be on its way to be solved.